Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warhawks @ Mountaineers ULM @ APP

UL MONROE

WARHAWKSULM

3-17  |  Road

43
FINAL
Fri, Jan 23 • 12:00 PM ET
Holmes Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

12-9  |  Home

59
AI Model Win Probability
WARHAWKS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
WARHAWKS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (App State)
WarhawksULM (-3.5) 0 MountaineersAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warhawks Cover

0.0%

Mountaineers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APP -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

ULM By 1-7 points

0.0%

ULM By 8-14 points

0.0%

APP By 1-7 points

0.5%

APP By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
54
UL MONROE
87
APP STATE
Simulated Score
60
UL MONROE
75
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 ULM @ APP 43 - 59
Jan 25, 2025 APP @ ULM 66 - 58
Dec 30, 2023 ULM @ APP 55 - 67
Feb 9, 2023 APP @ ULM 52 - 45
Jan 1, 2022 ULM @ APP 69 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.1% more
App State: 13.0 vs UL Monroe: 10.5
Rebounding (L5) +19.7% more
App State: 37.7 vs UL Monroe: 31.5
Field Goal % (L5) +10.9%
App State: 47.4% vs UL Monroe: 36.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
App State: 36.1% vs UL Monroe: 31.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 54.0 43
APP Score 87.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 31.5 15.0 / 20.0
Assists 13.0 / 10.5 14.0 / 4.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.1 9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 36.5 33.0 / 22.0
Free Throw % 62.0 / 70.8 78.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 31.5 56.0 / 41.0
Steals 3.5 / 5.8 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 12.5 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
4-28-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
APP
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0% Total +/-: +5.8
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
ULM
APP
ULM
ML
62% 20-12
50% 16-16
59% 19-13
70% 21-9
ATS
59% 19-13
78% 25-7
59% 19-13
70% 21-9
TTL
69% 22-10
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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