STETSON
HATTERSSTET
7-13 | Road
65
AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
12-6 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
HATTERS
100%
GOVERNORS
0%
HATTERS
--
GOVERNORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Austin Peay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APSU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APSU)
STET By 1-7 points
12.2%
STET By 8-14 points
4.0%
APSU By 1-7 points
24.3%
APSU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Stetson
60
STETSON
Austin Peay
69
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
Stetson
68
STETSON
Austin Peay
72
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Governors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Governors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Governors (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Governors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
STET @ APSU
60 - 69
Jan 23, 2026
STET @ APSU
65 - 73
Jan 10, 2026
APSU @ STET
81 - 69
Feb 15, 2025
STET @ APSU
63 - 76
Mar 10, 2024
APSU @ STET
91 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+85.3% more
Austin Peay: 10.9
vs
Stetson: 5.9
Turnovers (L5)
+34.1% more
Stetson: 14.6
vs
Austin Peay: 9.6
Blocks (L5)
+23.2% more
Stetson: 2.7
vs
Austin Peay: 2.1
Rebounding (L5)
+11.0% more
Stetson: 37.8
vs
Austin Peay: 33.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STET Score
60.0
65
APSU Score
69.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 37.7
25.0 / 29.0
Assists
16.0 / 15.9
14.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.1 / 2.7
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 47.1
47.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 74.3
75.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
33.7 / 37.8
41.0 / 33.0
Steals
10.9 / 5.9
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 14.6
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STET
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STET
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
APSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
STET
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
STET
APSU
STET
ML
53%
16-14
55%
18-15
59%
16-11
73%
24-9
ATS
57%
17-13
64%
21-12
59%
16-11
73%
24-9
TTL
57%
17-13
61%
20-13
100%
27-0
100%
33-0
