Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lakers @ Chargers MERC @ NHVN

MERCYHURST

LAKERSMERC

8-11  |  Road

61
FINAL
Fri, Jan 23 • 1:00 PM ET
Jeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center
View Odds Details →

NEW HAVEN

CHARGERSNHVN

9-10  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
CHARGERS
100%
LAKERS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Mercyhurst)
LakersMERC (-3.5) 0 ChargersNHVN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

99.2%

Chargers Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MERC -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)

MERC By 1-7 points

4.0%

MERC By 8-14 points

12.2%

NHVN By 1-7 points

0.6%

NHVN By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
79
MERCYHURST
55
NEW HAVEN
Simulated Score
75
MERCYHURST
68
NEW HAVEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Lakers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o121.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u121.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 NHVN @ MERC 51 - 70
Jan 23, 2026 MERC @ NHVN 61 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +53.0% more
Mercyhurst: 4.3 vs New Haven: 2.0
Steals (L5) +24.1% more
Mercyhurst: 7.4 vs New Haven: 5.6
Assists (L5) +13.2% more
Mercyhurst: 16.5 vs New Haven: 14.3
Rebounding (L5) +10.3% more
Mercyhurst: 33.7 vs New Haven: 30.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MERC Score 79.0 61
NHVN Score 55.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 36.6 20.0 / 43.0
Assists 14.3 / 16.5 10.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.0 / 4.3 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 46.6 49.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 79.6 / 78.0 71.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 30.2 / 33.7 28.0 / 22.0
Steals 5.6 / 7.4 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 8.4 14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
NHVN
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
NHVN
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.7
NHVN
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NHVN
MERC
NHVN
MERC
ML
71% 22-9
59% 20-14
68% 21-10
79% 26-7
ATS
74% 23-8
62% 21-13
68% 21-10
79% 26-7
TTL
42% 13-18
53% 18-16
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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