NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
10-36 | Road
133
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
18-24 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
PELICANS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
254.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
NO By 1-7 points
10.7%
NO By 8-14 points
3.3%
MEM By 1-7 points
23.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
122
NEW ORLEANS
Memphis
132
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
New Orleans
110
NEW ORLEANS
Memphis
116
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o240.0
Win
Proj Total: 254.0
D
Sim
u240.0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
MEM @ NO
106 - 114
Jan 23, 2026
NO @ MEM
133 - 127
Nov 26, 2025
MEM @ NO
133 - 128
Oct 22, 2025
NO @ MEM
122 - 128
Mar 9, 2025
MEM @ NO
107 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+22.5% more
Memphis: 28.1
vs
New Orleans: 22.9
Blocks (L5)
+13.8% more
Memphis: 6.3
vs
New Orleans: 5.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Memphis: 36.3%
vs
New Orleans: 32.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
Memphis: 82.1%
vs
New Orleans: 80.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
122.0
133
MEM Score
132.0
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 32.8
38.0 / 36.0
Assists
28.1 / 22.9
34.0 / 29.0
Blocks
6.3 / 5.6
10.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 46.5
49.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
82.1 / 80.1
86.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
44.3 / 43.9
47.0 / 49.0
Steals
7.7 / 9.3
4.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 14.9
19.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
NO
MEM
NO
ML
57%
59-44
62%
98-61
50%
41-41
58%
48-35
ATS
63%
65-38
68%
107-51-1
50%
41-41
58%
48-35
TTL
70%
71-31-1
75%
119-40
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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