HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
26-16 | Road
111
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
32-10 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
PISTONS
0%
ROCKETS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
HOU By 1-7 points
13.7%
HOU By 8-14 points
4.8%
DET By 1-7 points
25.3%
DET By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
120
HOUSTON
Detroit
128
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Houston
107
HOUSTON
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o217.0
Loss
Proj Total: 248.0
D
Sim
u217.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
HOU @ DET
111 - 104
Oct 24, 2025
DET @ HOU
115 - 111
Jan 20, 2025
DET @ HOU
107 - 96
Nov 10, 2024
HOU @ DET
101 - 99
Jan 12, 2024
HOU @ DET
112 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+41.4% more
Detroit: 8.2
vs
Houston: 5.8
Steals (L5)
+28.1% more
Detroit: 11.8
vs
Houston: 9.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.8%
Detroit: 74.0%
vs
Houston: 63.2%
Turnovers (L5)
+9.7% more
Detroit: 16.5
vs
Houston: 15.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
120.0
111
DET Score
128.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 38.2
22.0 / 35.0
Assists
26.4 / 26.7
22.0 / 21.0
Blocks
8.2 / 5.8
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 47.1
48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 63.2
71.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
46.3 / 46.6
35.0 / 43.0
Steals
11.8 / 9.2
9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.5 / 15.0
17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
HOU
DET
HOU
ML
55%
64-53
61%
69-44
49%
47-49
59%
51-35
ATS
53%
60-54-3
62%
70-43
49%
47-49
59%
51-35
TTL
60%
70-46-1
51%
58-55
100%
96-0
100%
86-0
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