Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Thunder IND @ OKC

INDIANA

PACERSIND

10-35  |  Road

117
FINAL
Fri, Jan 23 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

37-8  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
PACERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
212.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Oklahoma City)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

15.9%

Thunder Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

IND By 1-7 points

10.7%

IND By 8-14 points

3.3%

OKC By 1-7 points

23.0%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
101
INDIANA
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
116
INDIANA
128
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u227.0 Loss
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Sim u227.0 Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 IND @ OKC 117 - 114
Oct 23, 2025 OKC @ IND 141 - 135
Oct 11, 2025 OKC @ IND 101 - 116
Jun 22, 2025 IND @ OKC 91 - 103
Jun 19, 2025 OKC @ IND 91 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +40.0% more
Oklahoma City: 9.7 vs Indiana: 6.9
Blocks (L5) +30.1% more
Oklahoma City: 6.0 vs Indiana: 4.6
Field Goal % (L5) +10.2%
Oklahoma City: 52.8% vs Indiana: 42.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.6%
Oklahoma City: 40.5% vs Indiana: 31.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 101.0 117
OKC Score 111.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.5 / 31.9 27.0 / 42.0
Assists 25.8 / 27.7 18.0 / 34.0
Blocks 6.0 / 4.6 8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 52.8 / 42.6 49.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 72.9 90.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 42.0 / 43.3 41.0 / 51.0
Steals 9.7 / 6.9 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 17.1 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
IND
OKC
IND
ML
70% 80-34
48% 47-50
48% 46-49
54% 45-38
ATS
73% 83-30-1
59% 57-40
48% 46-49
54% 45-38
TTL
67% 76-38
54% 52-45
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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