Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Cavaliers SAC @ CLE

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

12-33  |  Road

118
FINAL
Fri, Jan 23 • 7:30 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

25-20  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
KINGS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cleveland)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

42.1%

Cavaliers Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

SAC By 1-7 points

23.0%

SAC By 8-14 points

12.2%

CLE By 1-7 points

26.8%

CLE By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
124
SACRAMENTO
126
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
111
SACRAMENTO
118
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+13) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o234.0 Win
Proj Total: 250.0
D
Sim u234.0 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 CLE @ SAC 132 - 126
Jan 23, 2026 SAC @ CLE 118 - 123
Apr 6, 2025 SAC @ CLE 120 - 113
Mar 19, 2025 CLE @ SAC 119 - 123
Feb 5, 2024 SAC @ CLE 110 - 136
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +18.3% more
Cleveland: 7.3 vs Sacramento: 6.1
Blocks (L5) +18.2% more
Cleveland: 6.0 vs Sacramento: 5.1
Turnovers (L5) +16.5% more
Cleveland: 18.6 vs Sacramento: 16.0
Rebounding (L5) +14.2% more
Cleveland: 50.6 vs Sacramento: 44.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 124.0 118
CLE Score 126.0 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 35.1 36.0 / 39.0
Assists 27.3 / 26.7 23.0 / 26.0
Blocks 6.0 / 5.1 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 49.7 46.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 80.6 81.0 / 95.0
Rebounding 50.6 / 44.3 48.0 / 43.0
Steals 7.3 / 6.1 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 18.6 / 16.0 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
SAC
CLE
SAC
ML
60% 69-46
55% 55-45
56% 55-44
61% 50-32
ATS
67% 75-37-3
54% 52-45-3
56% 55-44
61% 50-32
TTL
59% 68-47
58% 57-42-1
100% 99-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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