PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
27-17 | Road
103
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
21-25 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
HAWKS
100%
SUNS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
20.1%
PHX By 8-14 points
27.2%
ATL By 1-7 points
8.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
124
PHOENIX
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (+3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.5
Loss
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
PHX @ ATL
103 - 110
Nov 16, 2025
ATL @ PHX
124 - 122
Jan 14, 2025
PHX @ ATL
117 - 122
Jan 9, 2025
ATL @ PHX
115 - 123
Mar 21, 2024
ATL @ PHX
115 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+15.8% more
Phoenix: 16.1
vs
Atlanta: 13.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.6%
Phoenix: 86.1%
vs
Atlanta: 77.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Phoenix: 40.6%
vs
Atlanta: 36.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Phoenix: 45.8%
vs
Atlanta: 43.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
124.0
103
ATL Score
112.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 40.6
50.0 / 32.0
Assists
31.4 / 25.2
28.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.0 / 3.4
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 45.8
53.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
77.5 / 86.1
69.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
44.2 / 40.6
48.0 / 42.0
Steals
9.7 / 7.1
5.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 16.1
21.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHX
ATL
PHX
ML
50%
52-52
57%
60-45
55%
48-40
51%
45-43
ATS
53%
55-48-1
58%
59-43-3
55%
48-40
51%
45-43
TTL
53%
55-48-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
88-0
100%
88-0
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