TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
31-13-4 | Road
2
CHICAGO
BLACKHAWKSCHI
21-22-7 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Arvid Soderblom
#40 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 0.92 | 0.947 | -- |
| Arvid Soderblom | None-None | 0.92 | 0.968 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.92
GAA
0.92
0.947
Save %
Ldr 0.968
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
BLACKHAWKS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
BLACKHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
CHI By 1 goal
19.7%
CHI By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Chicago
2
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blackhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blackhawks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Lightning (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
TB @ CHI
2 - 1
Oct 23, 2025
CHI @ TB
3 - 2
Jan 28, 2025
CHI @ TB
4 - 1
Jan 24, 2025
TB @ CHI
4 - 3
Nov 16, 2023
TB @ CHI
4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+50.7% more
Chicago: 5.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.4
Hits (L5)
+22.2% more
Chicago: 18.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 15.3
Blocked Shots (L5)
+10.0% more
Chicago: 13.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 12.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.2%
Chicago: 46.6%
vs
Tampa Bay: 44.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
2
CHI Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.4 / 12.2
13.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
46.6 / 44.3
47.4 / 52.6
Hits
18.7 / 15.3
16.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
458.0 / 1700.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.7 / 25.9
18.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 3.4
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
TB
CHI
TB
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1-1
100%
3-0
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