FURMAN
PALADINSFUR
13-7 | Road
89
UNC GREENSBORO
SPARTANSUNCG
8-12 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
PALADINS
100%
SPARTANS
0%
PALADINS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
UNC GREENSBORO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (UNC Greensboro)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCG -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCG)
FUR By 1-7 points
0.8%
FUR By 8-14 points
0.1%
UNCG By 1-7 points
4.8%
UNCG By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Furman
61
FURMAN
UNC Greensboro
84
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
Furman
69
FURMAN
UNC Greensboro
75
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spartans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spartans (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
UNCG @ FUR
75 - 81
Feb 8, 2026
UNCG @ FUR
67 - 64
Jan 23, 2026
FUR @ UNCG
89 - 66
Feb 15, 2025
UNCG @ FUR
58 - 50
Jan 4, 2025
FUR @ UNCG
67 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+14.7% more
UNC Greensboro: 5.5
vs
Furman: 4.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.3%
UNC Greensboro: 39.1%
vs
Furman: 27.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
UNC Greensboro: 46.3%
vs
Furman: 43.9%
Blocks (L5)
+32.7% more
Furman: 3.2
vs
UNC Greensboro: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FUR Score
61.0
89
UNCG Score
84.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.1 / 27.8
27.0 / 52.0
Assists
13.5 / 14.4
12.0 / 23.0
Blocks
2.2 / 3.2
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 43.9
43.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
68.1 / 73.0
72.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
36.4 / 39.6
27.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.5 / 4.8
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.2 / 11.6
9.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FUR
Advantage
22-13-0
(62.9%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
UNCG
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: -1.9
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FUR
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
UNCG
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: -1.9
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
FUR
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.9
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3%
Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
FUR
UNCG
FUR
ML
38%
13-21
71%
25-10
71%
24-10
62%
21-13
ATS
44%
15-19
63%
22-13
71%
24-10
62%
21-13
TTL
76%
26-8
57%
20-15
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
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