Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Bulldogs MARQ @ BUT

MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

7-13  |  Road

76
FINAL
Fri, Jan 23 • 8:00 PM ET
Hinkle Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

12-7  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
BUTLER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Butler)
Golden EaglesMARQ (-3.5) 0 BulldogsBUT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

0.5%

Bulldogs Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUT -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUT)

MARQ By 1-7 points

0.4%

MARQ By 8-14 points

0.0%

BUT By 1-7 points

2.7%

BUT By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
49
MARQUETTE
75
BUTLER
Simulated Score
75
MARQUETTE
68
BUTLER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 BUT @ MARQ 55 - 70
Jan 23, 2026 MARQ @ BUT 76 - 87
Jan 28, 2025 MARQ @ BUT 78 - 69
Dec 18, 2024 BUT @ MARQ 70 - 80
Feb 13, 2024 MARQ @ BUT 78 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.6% more
Butler: 12.0 vs Marquette: 9.6
Free Throw % (L5) +17.8%
Butler: 76.3% vs Marquette: 58.5%
Blocks (L5) +8.7% more
Butler: 3.4 vs Marquette: 3.1
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Butler: 48.6% vs Marquette: 47.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MARQ Score 49.0 76
BUT Score 75.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 34.2 32.0 / 19.0
Assists 14.8 / 17.4 18.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.1 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 47.0 51.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 58.5 74.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 30.9 34.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.5 / 10.2 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 9.6 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUT
MARQ
BUT
MARQ
ML
62% 20-12
59% 19-13
65% 20-11
62% 20-12
ATS
56% 18-14
53% 17-15
65% 20-11
62% 20-12
TTL
50% 16-16
50% 16-16
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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