MASSACHUSETTS
MINUTEMENMASS
12-8 | Road
68
BUFFALO
BULLSBUF
13-6 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
MINUTEMEN
100%
BULLS
0%
MINUTEMEN
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
194.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUF -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
MASS By 1-7 points
13.7%
MASS By 8-14 points
4.8%
BUF By 1-7 points
25.3%
BUF By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Massachusetts
93
MASSACHUSETTS
Buffalo
101
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Massachusetts
71
MASSACHUSETTS
Buffalo
78
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulls (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Bulls (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o159.5
Loss
Proj Total: 194.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
BUF @ MASS
86 - 82
Jan 23, 2026
MASS @ BUF
68 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.2%
Buffalo: 74.1%
vs
Massachusetts: 70.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+15.4% more
Massachusetts: 13.9
vs
Buffalo: 11.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Massachusetts: 39.0%
vs
Buffalo: 36.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MASS Score
93.0
68
BUF Score
101.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 39.0
32.0 / 30.0
Assists
16.2 / 16.6
17.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.3
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 46.0
50.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 70.9
50.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
34.3 / 35.2
28.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.6 / 7.8
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 13.9
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -0.9
BUF
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -0.9
BUF
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
20-12-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +4.5
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
MASS
BUF
MASS
ML
45%
14-17
44%
14-18
45%
14-17
68%
21-10
ATS
55%
17-14
47%
15-17
45%
14-17
68%
21-10
TTL
48%
15-16
56%
18-14
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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