EAST CAROLINA
PIRATESECU
5-14 | Road
63
NORTH TEXAS
MEAN GREENUNT
12-7 | Home
59
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
0%
MEAN GREEN
100%
PIRATES
--
MEAN GREEN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (East Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ECU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)
ECU By 1-7 points
10.7%
ECU By 8-14 points
21.6%
UNT By 1-7 points
2.7%
UNT By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
East Carolina
78
EAST CAROLINA
North Texas
60
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
East Carolina
60
EAST CAROLINA
North Texas
67
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mean Green
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (-10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Mean Green (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
ECU @ UNT
63 - 59
Jan 14, 2025
UNT @ ECU
69 - 60
Mar 3, 2024
ECU @ UNT
69 - 84
Jan 17, 2024
UNT @ ECU
60 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+20.2% more
East Carolina: 5.1
vs
North Texas: 4.1
Steals (L5)
+63.9% more
North Texas: 10.0
vs
East Carolina: 6.1
Turnovers (L5)
+49.6% more
North Texas: 13.2
vs
East Carolina: 8.8
Assists (L5)
+20.7% more
North Texas: 13.1
vs
East Carolina: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ECU Score
78.0
63
UNT Score
60.0
59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 28.5
20.0 / 38.0
Assists
13.1 / 10.8
10.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.1 / 5.1
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 40.1
35.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
67.6 / 63.9
69.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
39.6 / 34.3
28.0 / 43.0
Steals
10.0 / 6.1
10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 8.8
7.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
11-20-0
(35.5%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -2.5
UNT
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -2.5
UNT
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.9
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
ECU
UNT
ECU
ML
70%
23-10
55%
17-14
59%
19-13
55%
17-14
ATS
52%
17-16
52%
16-15
59%
19-13
55%
17-14
TTL
67%
22-11
61%
19-12
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
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