Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buckeyes @ Wolverines OSU @ MICH

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

13-5  |  Road

62
FINAL
Fri, Jan 23 • 8:00 PM ET
Crisler Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

17-1  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKEYES
100%
📊
WOLVERINES
0%
BUCKEYES --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Michigan)
BuckeyesOSU (-3.5) 0 WolverinesMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buckeyes Cover

0.5%

Wolverines Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MICH -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

OSU By 1-7 points

0.4%

OSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

MICH By 1-7 points

2.7%

MICH By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
75
OHIO STATE
101
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
72
OHIO STATE
75
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolverines Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolverines Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolverines (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o165.5 Loss
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 OSU @ MICH 67 - 71
Feb 8, 2026 MICH @ OSU 82 - 61
Jan 23, 2026 OSU @ MICH 62 - 74
Feb 16, 2025 MICH @ OSU 86 - 83
Mar 3, 2024 MICH @ OSU 61 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +79.9% more
Michigan: 6.0 vs Ohio State: 3.3
Steals (L5) +32.8% more
Michigan: 5.7 vs Ohio State: 4.3
Assists (L5) +18.2% more
Michigan: 15.5 vs Ohio State: 13.1
Turnovers (L5) +14.6% more
Michigan: 11.9 vs Ohio State: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 75.0 62
MICH Score 101.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 32.8 22.0 / 30.0
Assists 15.5 / 13.1 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 6.0 / 3.3 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 48.4 52.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 73.1 / 78.1 60.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 38.5 36.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.7 / 4.3 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 10.4 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
MICH
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
OSU
MICH
OSU
ML
78% 31-9
53% 18-16
63% 24-14
73% 24-9
ATS
78% 31-9
59% 20-14
63% 24-14
73% 24-9
TTL
57% 23-17
56% 19-15
100% 38-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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