WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
24-21-6 | Road
3
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
21-24-5 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Devin Cooley
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 1.00 | 0.962 | -- |
| Devin Cooley | None-None | 2.06 | 0.946 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
2.06
0.962 Ldr
Save %
0.946
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
FLAMES
0%
CAPITALS
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Calgary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CGY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
9.3%
CGY By 1 goal
19.7%
CGY By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Calgary
4
CALGARY
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Calgary
3
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flames
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flames (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Flames (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
CGY @ WSH
3 - 7
Jan 23, 2026
WSH @ CGY
3 - 1
Feb 25, 2025
CGY @ WSH
3 - 1
Jan 28, 2025
WSH @ CGY
3 - 1
Mar 18, 2024
WSH @ CGY
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+10.0% more
Calgary: 20.7
vs
Washington: 18.9
Power Play % (L5)
+25.3%
Washington: 34.8%
vs
Calgary: 9.6%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+23.4% more
Washington: 16.6
vs
Calgary: 12.7
Takeaways (L5)
+23.1% more
Washington: 4.8
vs
Calgary: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
3
CGY Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.7 / 16.6
17.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
45.5 / 54.6
47.0 / 53.0
Hits
20.7 / 18.9
21.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
9.6 / 34.8
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
22.1 / 28.3
26.0 / 38.0
Takeaways
3.7 / 4.8
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
WSH
CGY
WSH
ML
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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