CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
16-28 | Road
124
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
23-19 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
MAGIC
0%
HORNETS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
CHA By 1-7 points
23.0%
CHA By 8-14 points
12.2%
ORL By 1-7 points
26.8%
ORL By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
117
CHARLOTTE
Orlando
119
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Charlotte
106
CHARLOTTE
Orlando
118
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Magic
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Magic (+5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Magic (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o224.0
Loss
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim
u224.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 17, 2026
CHA @ ORL
90 - 121
Mar 19, 2026
ORL @ CHA
111 - 130
Jan 22, 2026
CHA @ ORL
124 - 97
Dec 26, 2025
CHA @ ORL
120 - 105
Oct 30, 2025
ORL @ CHA
123 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.8% more
Orlando: 5.2
vs
Charlotte: 3.8
Turnovers (L5)
+16.2% more
Orlando: 16.0
vs
Charlotte: 13.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.4%
Orlando: 87.3%
vs
Charlotte: 79.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Orlando: 33.3%
vs
Charlotte: 30.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
117.0
124
ORL Score
119.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 30.0
38.0 / 47.0
Assists
28.0 / 26.1
25.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.2 / 3.8
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 43.9
42.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
87.3 / 79.9
77.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
45.2 / 48.6
31.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.5 / 7.1
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.0 / 13.7
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
CHA
ORL
CHA
ML
61%
65-42
61%
60-39
56%
51-40
48%
40-44
ATS
64%
68-38-1
60%
59-40
56%
51-40
48%
40-44
TTL
57%
61-46
58%
57-42
100%
91-0
100%
84-0
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