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CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

9-10  |  Road

86
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 7:00 PM ET
The Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WEST GEORGIA

WOLVESWGA

9-9  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
WOLVES
100%
BEARS --
WOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Central Arkansas)
BearsCARK (-3.5) 0 WolvesWGA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

99.5%

Wolves Cover

0.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CARK -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)

CARK By 1-7 points

2.7%

CARK By 8-14 points

9.3%

WGA By 1-7 points

0.4%

WGA By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
76
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
50
WEST GEORGIA
Simulated Score
68
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
75
WEST GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Wolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 WGA @ CARK 62 - 79
Jan 22, 2026 CARK @ WGA 86 - 65
Feb 20, 2025 CARK @ WGA 82 - 71
Jan 29, 2025 WGA @ CARK 70 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +30.0% more
Central Arkansas: 19.3 vs West Georgia: 13.5
Rebounding (L5) +20.9% more
Central Arkansas: 39.6 vs West Georgia: 31.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Central Arkansas: 33.8% vs West Georgia: 27.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Central Arkansas: 45.8% vs West Georgia: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CARK Score 76.0 86
WGA Score 50.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.8 / 33.8 35.0 / 50.0
Assists 13.5 / 19.3 9.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.0 8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 45.8 49.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 72.5 / 74.9 67.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 31.3 / 39.6 34.0 / 19.0
Steals 7.2 / 6.3 2.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 9.6 22.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
WGA
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
WGA Advantage
21-9-0 (70.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
WGA
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WGA
CARK
WGA
CARK
ML
58% 18-13
67% 22-11
61% 19-12
70% 23-10
ATS
71% 22-9
61% 20-13
61% 19-12
70% 23-10
TTL
55% 17-14
50% 16-16-1
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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