Home / NBA Projections NBA / Heat @ Trail Blazers MIA @ POR

MIAMI

HEATMIA

23-21  |  Road

110
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

22-22  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
HEAT --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Portland)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

11.5%

Trail Blazers Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

MIA By 1-7 points

8.0%

MIA By 8-14 points

2.2%

POR By 1-7 points

20.1%

POR By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
108
MIAMI
120
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
109
MIAMI
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u235.5 Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim u235.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 MIA @ POR 110 - 127
Nov 8, 2025 POR @ MIA 131 - 136
Jan 21, 2025 POR @ MIA 116 - 107
Jan 11, 2025 MIA @ POR 119 - 98
Mar 29, 2024 POR @ MIA 82 - 142
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +65.6% more
Portland: 4.3 vs Miami: 2.6
Steals (L5) +26.1% more
Portland: 8.5 vs Miami: 6.8
Turnovers (L5) +24.6% more
Portland: 15.5 vs Miami: 12.5
Free Throw % (L5) +6.2%
Portland: 79.7% vs Miami: 73.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 108.0 110
POR Score 120.0 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 39.7 40.0 / 20.0
Assists 21.6 / 30.1 26.0 / 27.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.6 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 44.1 50.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 79.7 / 73.5 85.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 44.4 / 47.3 50.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.5 / 6.8 10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 12.5 20.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
MIA
POR
MIA
ML
53% 56-49
48% 46-50
55% 49-40
59% 48-34
ATS
62% 65-39-1
51% 49-47
55% 49-40
59% 48-34
TTL
56% 58-46-1
59% 57-39
100% 89-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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