HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
26-15 | Road
122
PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
23-19 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
76ERS
0%
ROCKETS
--
76ERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHI -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
HOU By 1-7 points
13.7%
HOU By 8-14 points
4.8%
PHI By 1-7 points
25.3%
PHI By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
107
HOUSTON
Philadelphia
115
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Houston
119
HOUSTON
Philadelphia
110
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
76ers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
76ers (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Rockets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u222.0
Loss
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Sim
u222.0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 9, 2026
PHI @ HOU
102 - 113
Jan 22, 2026
HOU @ PHI
122 - 128
Mar 17, 2025
PHI @ HOU
137 - 144
Nov 27, 2024
HOU @ PHI
122 - 115
Jan 15, 2024
HOU @ PHI
115 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+65.8% more
Philadelphia: 12.2
vs
Houston: 7.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.8%
Philadelphia: 79.6%
vs
Houston: 69.8%
Rebounding (L5)
+8.1% more
Houston: 46.8
vs
Philadelphia: 43.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Houston: 34.8%
vs
Philadelphia: 32.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
107.0
122
PHI Score
115.0
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 34.8
34.0 / 45.0
Assists
22.0 / 23.6
41.0 / 33.0
Blocks
6.0 / 6.2
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 47.7
55.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 69.8
86.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 46.8
46.0 / 46.0
Steals
12.2 / 7.3
13.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 14.0
15.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
HOU
PHI
HOU
ML
63%
69-40
61%
69-44
48%
45-48
59%
51-35
ATS
65%
71-38
62%
70-43
48%
45-48
59%
51-35
TTL
55%
60-49
51%
58-55
100%
93-0
100%
86-0
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