Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Mavericks GS @ DAL

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

25-20  |  Road

115
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 7:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

18-26  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
WARRIORS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

34.5%

Mavericks Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

GS By 1-7 points

27.4%

GS By 8-14 points

21.6%

DAL By 1-7 points

20.1%

DAL By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
112
GOLDEN STATE
108
DALLAS
Simulated Score
109
GOLDEN STATE
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u234.5 Loss
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim u234.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 GS @ DAL 137 - 131
Jan 22, 2026 GS @ DAL 115 - 123
Dec 25, 2025 DAL @ GS 116 - 126
Feb 23, 2025 DAL @ GS 102 - 126
Feb 12, 2025 GS @ DAL 107 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +9.9% more
Golden State: 31.7 vs Dallas: 28.6
Turnovers (L5) +9.1% more
Golden State: 15.1 vs Dallas: 13.7
Free Throw % (L5) +6.8%
Golden State: 76.0% vs Dallas: 69.2%
Blocks (L5) +22.0% more
Dallas: 4.3 vs Golden State: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 112.0 115
DAL Score 108.0 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.6 / 40.6 37.0 / 33.0
Assists 28.6 / 31.7 25.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.5 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 50.7 / 51.8 50.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 69.2 / 76.0 80.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 46.0 / 40.0 54.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.7 / 8.6 6.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 15.1 22.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
GS
DAL
GS
ML
62% 63-39
55% 95-79
54% 44-37
58% 49-35
ATS
67% 68-34
58% 101-73
54% 44-37
58% 49-35
TTL
59% 60-41-1
77% 134-40
100% 81-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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