Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Wizards DEN @ WSH

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

29-15  |  Road

107
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

10-32  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
WIZARDS
0%
NUGGETS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
252.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Washington)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

21.2%

Wizards Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

DEN By 1-7 points

13.7%

DEN By 8-14 points

4.8%

WSH By 1-7 points

25.3%

WSH By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
122
DENVER
130
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
105
DENVER
120
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wizards Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wizards (+6) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o227.5 Loss
Proj Total: 252.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 DEN @ WSH 107 - 97
Jan 17, 2026 WSH @ DEN 115 - 121
Mar 15, 2025 WSH @ DEN 126 - 123
Dec 7, 2024 DEN @ WSH 113 - 122
Feb 22, 2024 WSH @ DEN 110 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +87.9% more
Washington: 15.8 vs Denver: 8.4
Rebounding (L5) +28.6% more
Washington: 43.5 vs Denver: 33.9
Steals (L5) +27.0% more
Washington: 8.0 vs Denver: 6.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Denver: 36.2% vs Washington: 34.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 122.0 107
WSH Score 130.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 36.2 30.0 / 35.0
Assists 24.1 / 25.1 20.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.6 / 5.0 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 45.8 38.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 77.7 83.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 43.5 / 33.9 42.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.0 / 6.3 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 8.4 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DEN
WSH
DEN
ML
70% 112-49
54% 57-48
47% 39-44
55% 47-39
ATS
69% 111-49-1
63% 65-38-2
47% 39-44
55% 47-39
TTL
74% 119-41-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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