Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Governors FGCU @ APSU

FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

8-11  |  Road

62
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 1:00 PM ET
F&M Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

AUSTIN PEAY

GOVERNORSAPSU

11-6  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
GOVERNORS
0%
EAGLES --
GOVERNORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Austin Peay)
EaglesFGCU (-3.5) 0 GovernorsAPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

0.3%

Governors Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APSU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APSU)

FGCU By 1-7 points

0.3%

FGCU By 8-14 points

0.0%

APSU By 1-7 points

2.2%

APSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
53
FLORIDA GULF COAST
80
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
69
FLORIDA GULF COAST
72
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Governors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Governors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Governors (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Governors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 FGCU @ APSU 62 - 83
Jan 8, 2026 APSU @ FGCU 82 - 71
Feb 13, 2025 FGCU @ APSU 60 - 73
Jan 27, 2024 APSU @ FGCU 67 - 73
Feb 24, 2023 APSU @ FGCU 71 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.5% more
Austin Peay: 10.4 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 7.5
Blocks (L5) +35.2% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 3.3 vs Austin Peay: 2.1
Free Throw % (L5) +5.8%
Florida Gulf Coast: 78.3% vs Austin Peay: 72.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Florida Gulf Coast: 48.6% vs Austin Peay: 44.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FGCU Score 53.0 62
APSU Score 80.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 37.2 39.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.5 / 14.3 21.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.1 / 3.3 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 48.6 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 78.3 73.0 / 44.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 36.6 33.0 / 38.0
Steals 10.4 / 7.5 12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 11.1 8.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FGCU
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
APSU Advantage
22-9-0 (71.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
APSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
FGCU
APSU
FGCU
ML
53% 16-14
58% 19-14
59% 16-11
67% 22-11
ATS
57% 17-13
61% 20-13
59% 16-11
67% 22-11
TTL
57% 17-13
61% 20-13
100% 27-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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