Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Dukes USA @ JMU

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

13-6  |  Road

90
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Atlantic Union Bank Center
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

9-10  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
DUKES
0%
JAGUARS --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (James Madison)
JaguarsUSA (-3.5) 0 DukesJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

30.9%

Dukes Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JMU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

USA By 1-7 points

18.6%

USA By 8-14 points

8.0%

JMU By 1-7 points

27.2%

JMU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
73
SOUTH ALABAMA
78
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
70
SOUTH ALABAMA
76
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 USA @ JMU 90 - 83
Dec 21, 2024 JMU @ USA 49 - 77
Jan 11, 2024 USA @ JMU 55 - 89
Mar 5, 2023 USA @ JMU 75 - 66
Jan 12, 2023 JMU @ USA 62 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +126.3% more
James Madison: 4.8 vs South Alabama: 2.1
Turnovers (L5) +33.8% more
James Madison: 12.0 vs South Alabama: 9.0
Free Throw % (L5) +11.9%
James Madison: 68.5% vs South Alabama: 56.6%
Assists (L5) +9.4% more
James Madison: 11.9 vs South Alabama: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 73.0 90
JMU Score 78.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 37.9 38.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.9 / 10.8 18.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.8 / 2.1 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.4 / 45.6 44.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 56.6 76.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 36.3 / 36.7 38.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.0 / 7.6 3.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 9.0 17.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
JMU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
USA
JMU
USA
ML
64% 21-12
47% 15-17
66% 21-11
57% 17-13
ATS
67% 22-11
53% 17-15
66% 21-11
57% 17-13
TTL
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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