Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bobcats @ Mountaineers QUIN @ MSM

QUINNIPIAC

BOBCATSQUIN

13-7  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Knott Arena
View Odds Details →

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

8-12  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
BOBCATS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Mount St. Mary's)
BobcatsQUIN (-3.5) 0 MountaineersMSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

11.5%

Mountaineers Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSM -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)

QUIN By 1-7 points

8.0%

QUIN By 8-14 points

2.2%

MSM By 1-7 points

20.1%

MSM By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
57
QUINNIPIAC
69
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
68
QUINNIPIAC
72
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 QUIN @ MSM 77 - 62
Jan 4, 2026 MSM @ QUIN 69 - 80
Mar 6, 2025 MSM @ QUIN 70 - 79
Jan 18, 2025 QUIN @ MSM 91 - 57
Feb 10, 2024 QUIN @ MSM 79 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.4% more
Mount St. Mary's: 13.3 vs Quinnipiac: 10.9
Rebounding (L5) +9.4% more
Mount St. Mary's: 37.3 vs Quinnipiac: 34.0
Free Throw % (L5) +1.9%
Mount St. Mary's: 71.4% vs Quinnipiac: 69.4%
Assists (L5) +30.9% more
Quinnipiac: 15.7 vs Mount St. Mary's: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
QUIN Score 57.0 77
MSM Score 69.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 39.2 35.0 / 45.0
Assists 10.9 / 15.7 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.4 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 45.5 43.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 69.4 71.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 34.0 35.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.9 4.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 10.9 16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
QUIN Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: -1.5
MSM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
QUIN
13-17-1 (43.3%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: -1.5
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
QUIN
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -0.9
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
QUIN
MSM
QUIN
ML
53% 17-15
66% 21-11
61% 19-12
53% 17-15
ATS
62% 20-12
59% 19-13
61% 19-12
53% 17-15
TTL
81% 26-6
62% 20-12
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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