LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
9-10 | Road
65
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
10-10 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
REDHAWKS
100%
TROJANS
--
REDHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Little Rock)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LR -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)
LR By 1-7 points
0.6%
LR By 8-14 points
3.3%
SEMO By 1-7 points
0.1%
SEMO By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Little Rock
91
LITTLE ROCK
Southeast Missouri State
59
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
Little Rock
70
LITTLE ROCK
Southeast Missouri State
75
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trojans (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim
Redhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
SEMO @ LR
70 - 65
Jan 22, 2026
LR @ SEMO
65 - 70
Mar 7, 2025
LR @ SEMO
59 - 78
Feb 11, 2025
SEMO @ LR
57 - 45
Jan 14, 2025
LR @ SEMO
73 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+42.1% more
Little Rock: 5.0
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 2.9
Assists (L5)
+28.8% more
Little Rock: 17.8
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 12.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+23.6%
Little Rock: 84.1%
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 60.5%
Steals (L5)
+17.3% more
Little Rock: 7.9
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LR Score
91.0
65
SEMO Score
59.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 37.8
30.0 / 43.0
Assists
12.7 / 17.8
16.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.9 / 5.0
1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 47.1
45.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
60.5 / 84.1
71.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
30.7 / 33.8
35.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.5 / 7.9
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 10.3
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
SEMO
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
SEMO
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEMO
LR
SEMO
LR
ML
64%
21-12
52%
16-15
50%
15-15
68%
17-8
ATS
67%
22-11
45%
14-17
50%
15-15
68%
17-8
TTL
58%
19-14
58%
18-13
100%
30-0
100%
25-0
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