NJIT
HIGHLANDERSNJIT
9-11 | Road
74
UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
10-7 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
0%
RETRIEVERS
100%
HIGHLANDERS
--
RETRIEVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UMBC +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)
NJIT By 1-7 points
27.4%
NJIT By 8-14 points
21.6%
UMBC By 1-7 points
20.1%
UMBC By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
NJIT
64
NJIT
UMBC
60
UMBC
Simulated Score
NJIT
70
NJIT
UMBC
75
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Highlanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Retrievers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Retrievers (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Retrievers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
UMBC @ NJIT
91 - 52
Jan 22, 2026
NJIT @ UMBC
74 - 87
Feb 22, 2025
NJIT @ UMBC
91 - 95
Jan 9, 2025
UMBC @ NJIT
87 - 64
Feb 29, 2024
UMBC @ NJIT
79 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+30.7% more
NJIT: 2.9
vs
UMBC: 2.0
Steals (L5)
+28.3% more
NJIT: 7.2
vs
UMBC: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.0%
NJIT: 82.3%
vs
UMBC: 76.2%
Assists (L5)
+19.8% more
UMBC: 12.6
vs
NJIT: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NJIT Score
64.0
74
UMBC Score
60.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.4 / 33.4
30.0 / 30.0
Assists
12.6 / 10.5
9.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.0 / 2.9
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 41.8
52.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
76.2 / 82.3
77.0 / 52.0
Rebounding
31.0 / 33.6
34.0 / 40.0
Steals
5.2 / 7.2
3.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
7.7 / 8.4
6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NJIT
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: +1.2
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NJIT
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: +1.2
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NJIT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -2.5
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
NJIT
UMBC
NJIT
ML
58%
18-13
78%
25-7
55%
17-14
62%
20-12
ATS
68%
21-10
72%
23-9
55%
17-14
62%
20-12
TTL
39%
12-19
47%
15-17
100%
31-0
100%
32-0