VERMONT
CATAMOUNTSUVM
11-8 | Road
77
UMASS LOWELL
RIVER HAWKSUML
8-11 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
100%
RIVER HAWKS
0%
CATAMOUNTS
--
RIVER HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
UMASS LOWELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (UMass Lowell)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UML -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UML)
UVM By 1-7 points
0.0%
UVM By 8-14 points
0.0%
UML By 1-7 points
0.5%
UML By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Vermont
64
VERMONT
UMass Lowell
97
UMASS LOWELL
Simulated Score
Vermont
73
VERMONT
UMass Lowell
65
UMASS LOWELL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
River Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
River Hawks (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
UML @ UVM
64 - 66
Jan 22, 2026
UVM @ UML
77 - 68
Feb 22, 2025
UML @ UVM
61 - 85
Jan 9, 2025
UVM @ UML
67 - 63
Mar 16, 2024
UML @ UVM
61 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+58.3% more
UMass Lowell: 4.8
vs
Vermont: 3.0
Turnovers (L5)
+19.4% more
UMass Lowell: 11.6
vs
Vermont: 9.8
Rebounding (L5)
+8.4% more
UMass Lowell: 37.6
vs
Vermont: 34.7
Assists (L5)
+8.5% more
Vermont: 10.6
vs
UMass Lowell: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVM Score
64.0
77
UML Score
97.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 34.6
40.0 / 36.0
Assists
9.7 / 10.6
13.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.3 / 4.2
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 46.0
39.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
67.1 / 71.8
80.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
37.6 / 34.7
38.0 / 35.0
Steals
4.8 / 3.0
2.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 9.8
14.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVM
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
UML
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVM
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
UML
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.9
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UML
UVM
UML
UVM
ML
70%
23-10
56%
19-15
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
ATS
70%
23-10
62%
21-13
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
TTL
58%
19-14
47%
16-18
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
Contextual Game News
