Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warriors @ Gaels MRMK @ IONA

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

12-8  |  Road

60
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Hynes Athletics Center
View Odds Details →

IONA

GAELSIONA

12-8  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
GAELS
100%
WARRIORS --
GAELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Merrimack)
WarriorsMRMK (-3.5) 0 GaelsIONA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

78.8%

Gaels Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRMK -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

MRMK By 1-7 points

25.3%

MRMK By 8-14 points

26.2%

IONA By 1-7 points

13.7%

IONA By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
70
MERRIMACK
62
IONA
Simulated Score
65
MERRIMACK
72
IONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Gaels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 IONA @ MRMK 86 - 88
Jan 22, 2026 MRMK @ IONA 60 - 61
Feb 23, 2025 MRMK @ IONA 77 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +32.5% more
Merrimack: 7.6 vs Iona: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5) +21.0%
Merrimack: 77.5% vs Iona: 56.4%
Blocks (L5) +11.1% more
Merrimack: 4.2 vs Iona: 3.8
Turnovers (L5) +8.5% more
Merrimack: 10.9 vs Iona: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 70.0 60
IONA Score 62.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 32.2 39.0 / 28.0
Assists 14.5 / 11.4 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.8 / 4.2 3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 46.3 37.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 56.4 / 77.5 67.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 28.0 30.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.2 / 7.6 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 10.9 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
IONA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
IONA Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IONA
MRMK
IONA
MRMK
ML
41% 13-19
47% 16-18
62% 20-12
65% 22-12
ATS
53% 17-15
53% 18-16
62% 20-12
65% 22-12
TTL
66% 21-11
62% 21-13
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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