SACRAMENTO STATE
HORNETSSAC
6-11 | Road
76
IDAHO
VANDALSIDHO
11-7 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
VANDALS
0%
HORNETS
--
VANDALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
193.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
IDAHO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Idaho)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IDHO -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDHO)
SAC By 1-7 points
24.3%
SAC By 8-14 points
13.7%
IDHO By 1-7 points
26.2%
IDHO By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento State
96
SACRAMENTO STATE
Idaho
97
IDAHO
Simulated Score
Sacramento State
64
SACRAMENTO STATE
Idaho
69
IDAHO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Vandals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Vandals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Vandals (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Vandals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o161.5
Win
Proj Total: 193.0
D
Sim
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
SAC @ IDHO
45 - 68
Feb 21, 2026
IDHO @ SAC
86 - 80
Jan 22, 2026
SAC @ IDHO
76 - 86
Feb 8, 2025
SAC @ IDHO
76 - 78
Jan 9, 2025
IDHO @ SAC
80 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+30.1% more
Idaho: 11.2
vs
Sacramento State: 8.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Idaho: 44.3%
vs
Sacramento State: 41.6%
Assists (L5)
+30.6% more
Sacramento State: 13.6
vs
Idaho: 9.4
Steals (L5)
+15.3% more
Sacramento State: 8.5
vs
Idaho: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
96.0
76
IDHO Score
97.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.7 / 32.1
44.0 / 21.0
Assists
9.4 / 13.6
16.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.5
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 41.6
49.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
69.6 / 78.4
88.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
34.8 / 34.3
36.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.5
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 8.6
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
IDHO
Advantage
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
IDHO
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDHO
SAC
IDHO
SAC
ML
56%
20-16
57%
17-13
64%
21-12
87%
26-4
ATS
58%
21-15
73%
22-8
64%
21-12
87%
27-4
TTL
69%
25-11
60%
18-12
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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