Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pride @ Aggies HOF @ NCAT

HOFSTRA

PRIDEHOF

13-6  |  Road

78
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Corbett Sports Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA A&T

AGGIESNCAT

7-10  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
PRIDE
0%
📊
AGGIES
100%
PRIDE --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
HOFSTRA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Hofstra)
PrideHOF (-3.5) 0 AggiesNCAT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pride Cover

93.3%

Aggies Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOF -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOF)

HOF By 1-7 points

15.3%

HOF By 8-14 points

25.3%

NCAT By 1-7 points

4.8%

NCAT By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
82
HOFSTRA
67
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Simulated Score
63
HOFSTRA
82
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pride Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pride (+9) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u147.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 HOF @ NCAT 78 - 79
Mar 7, 2025 NCAT @ HOF 55 - 77
Mar 1, 2025 NCAT @ HOF 49 - 70
Feb 10, 2024 HOF @ NCAT 81 - 49
Dec 31, 2022 NCAT @ HOF 81 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +14.1% more
Hofstra: 3.9 vs North Carolina A&T: 3.4
Steals (L5) +12.0% more
Hofstra: 4.1 vs North Carolina A&T: 3.6
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
Hofstra: 78.6% vs North Carolina A&T: 74.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Hofstra: 40.1% vs North Carolina A&T: 37.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOF Score 82.0 78
NCAT Score 67.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 40.1 30.0 / 39.0
Assists 11.7 / 12.6 8.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.9 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 42.1 41.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 74.0 / 78.6 74.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 38.0 45.0 / 30.0
Steals 3.6 / 4.1 2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 10.0 9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOF Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.7 ATS +/-: +4.0
NCAT
11-19-0 (36.7%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOF Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 8.7 ATS +/-: +4.0
NCAT
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
HOF
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: +0.2
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCAT
HOF
NCAT
HOF
ML
52% 14-13
77% 27-8
63% 17-10
71% 25-10
ATS
63% 17-10
83% 29-6
64% 18-10
71% 25-10
TTL
69% 18-8-1
51% 18-17
100% 28-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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