Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warhawks @ Thundering Herd ULM @ MRSH

UL MONROE

WARHAWKSULM

3-16  |  Road

60
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 12:00 PM ET
Cam Henderson Center
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

12-7  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
WARHAWKS
100%
📊
THUNDERING HERD
0%
WARHAWKS --
THUNDERING HERD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Marshall)
WarhawksULM (-3.5) 0 Thundering HerdMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warhawks Cover

0.2%

Thundering Herd Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRSH -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

ULM By 1-7 points

0.1%

ULM By 8-14 points

0.0%

MRSH By 1-7 points

1.4%

MRSH By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
69
UL MONROE
98
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
69
UL MONROE
82
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thundering Herd Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thundering Herd Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thundering Herd (-17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Thundering Herd (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 ULM @ MRSH 60 - 115
Jan 3, 2024 MRSH @ ULM 68 - 57
Jan 26, 2023 ULM @ MRSH 86 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.4% more
Marshall: 6.3 vs UL Monroe: 4.7
Assists (L5) +13.8% more
Marshall: 13.4 vs UL Monroe: 11.7
Rebounding (L5) +13.2% more
Marshall: 38.2 vs UL Monroe: 33.7
Blocks (L5) +12.5% more
Marshall: 4.6 vs UL Monroe: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 69.0 60
MRSH Score 98.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 37.7 50.0 / 19.0
Assists 13.4 / 11.7 29.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.6 / 4.1 12.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 40.3 54.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 71.5 / 70.2 78.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 38.2 / 33.7 54.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.3 / 4.7 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 12.7 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
4-28-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0% Total +/-: +5.8
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
ULM
MRSH
ULM
ML
70% 21-9
50% 16-16
62% 18-11
70% 21-9
ATS
70% 21-9
78% 25-7
62% 18-11
70% 21-9
TTL
50% 15-15
59% 19-13
100% 29-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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