Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Grizzlies WEB @ MONT

WEBER STATE

WILDCATSWEB

10-9  |  Road

65
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 9:00 PM ET
Dahlberg Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

10-9  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
WILDCATS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Montana)
WildcatsWEB (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMONT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

0.3%

Grizzlies Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MONT -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

WEB By 1-7 points

0.3%

WEB By 8-14 points

0.0%

MONT By 1-7 points

2.2%

MONT By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
63
WEBER STATE
90
MONTANA
Simulated Score
68
WEBER STATE
72
MONTANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 MONT @ WEB 72 - 92
Jan 22, 2026 WEB @ MONT 65 - 81
Feb 15, 2025 WEB @ MONT 58 - 65
Jan 16, 2025 MONT @ WEB 63 - 59
Jan 22, 2024 WEB @ MONT 62 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +38.0% more
Montana: 15.7 vs Weber State: 11.4
Blocks (L5) +19.2% more
Montana: 2.1 vs Weber State: 1.7
Free Throw % (L5) +13.7%
Montana: 84.4% vs Weber State: 70.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +11.6%
Montana: 53.5% vs Weber State: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WEB Score 63.0 65
MONT Score 90.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.5 / 34.6 52.0 / 29.0
Assists 15.7 / 11.4 22.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.1 / 1.7 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 53.5 / 41.8 62.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 84.4 / 70.8 80.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 39.2 27.0 / 22.0
Steals 4.7 / 7.7 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 12.7 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WEB
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
MONT Advantage
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WEB Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
MONT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.7
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONT
WEB
MONT
WEB
ML
39% 13-20
73% 22-8
73% 24-9
73% 22-8
ATS
55% 18-15
63% 19-11
73% 24-9
74% 23-8
TTL
59% 19-13-1
83% 25-5
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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