Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Wolves @ Eagles ARST @ GASO

ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

12-7  |  Road

85
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

13-7  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
RED WOLVES --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Georgia Southern)
Red WolvesARST (-3.5) 0 EaglesGASO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wolves Cover

0.8%

Eagles Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GASO -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

ARST By 1-7 points

0.6%

ARST By 8-14 points

0.1%

GASO By 1-7 points

4.0%

GASO By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
57
ARKANSAS STATE
81
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
70
ARKANSAS STATE
75
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u173.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u173.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 GASO @ ARST 80 - 77
Jan 22, 2026 ARST @ GASO 85 - 68
Jan 4, 2024 GASO @ ARST 83 - 109
Feb 11, 2023 ARST @ GASO 53 - 68
Jan 1, 2022 GASO @ ARST 56 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +196.1% more
Georgia Southern: 4.5 vs Arkansas State: 1.5
Steals (L5) +48.6% more
Georgia Southern: 8.3 vs Arkansas State: 5.6
Turnovers (L5) +38.3% more
Arkansas State: 13.6 vs Georgia Southern: 8.4
Assists (L5) +32.5% more
Arkansas State: 16.2 vs Georgia Southern: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 57.0 85
GASO Score 81.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 34.8 15.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.0 / 16.2 5.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.5 / 1.5 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 43.2 35.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 67.4 / 69.4 65.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 40.0 38.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.3 / 5.6 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 8.4 / 13.6 12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
GASO
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
GASO
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
ARST
GASO
ARST
ML
56% 20-16
48% 15-16
58% 19-14
53% 16-14
ATS
64% 23-13
58% 18-13
58% 19-14
53% 16-14
TTL
61% 22-14
61% 19-12
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Houston Cougars Survive Georgia Southern Scare: Offensive Firepo…
si 1 week, 4 days ago
Houston Cougars' Loss to Texas Tech Exposes Critical Weaknesses …
si 2 weeks, 3 days ago
DeVonta Smith's Star Turn Lifts Eagles Over Titans in Thrilling …
crossingbroad 2 weeks, 4 days ago
Southern Miss Adds Sharpshooter Elliot Tulip to Bolster Perimete…
si 2 weeks, 6 days ago
Bismarck's Eaglestaff Commits to UC San Diego for Extra Collegia…
kfyrtv 1 month, 2 weeks ago