UNC WILMINGTON
SEAHAWKSUNCW
17-2 | Road
70
WILLIAM & MARY
TRIBEW&M
12-6 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
100%
TRIBE
0%
SEAHAWKS
--
TRIBE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (William & Mary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around W&M -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (W&M)
UNCW By 1-7 points
0.0%
UNCW By 8-14 points
0.0%
W&M By 1-7 points
0.3%
W&M By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
UNC Wilmington
54
UNC WILMINGTON
William & Mary
89
WILLIAM & MARY
Simulated Score
UNC Wilmington
74
UNC WILMINGTON
William & Mary
70
WILLIAM & MARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tribe
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seahawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tribe (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Seahawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
W&M @ UNCW
85 - 78
Jan 22, 2026
UNCW @ W&M
70 - 77
Feb 24, 2025
UNCW @ W&M
79 - 70
Jan 20, 2025
W&M @ UNCW
74 - 85
Feb 22, 2024
UNCW @ W&M
81 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+46.2% more
William & Mary: 9.7
vs
UNC Wilmington: 6.7
Assists (L5)
+40.9% more
William & Mary: 18.9
vs
UNC Wilmington: 13.4
Turnovers (L5)
+24.7% more
William & Mary: 11.7
vs
UNC Wilmington: 9.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
William & Mary: 37.5%
vs
UNC Wilmington: 33.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCW Score
54.0
70
W&M Score
89.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.5 / 33.7
28.0 / 29.0
Assists
18.9 / 13.4
19.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.3 / 4.8
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 45.0
46.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
70.5 / 68.0
73.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
30.9 / 36.7
36.0 / 44.0
Steals
9.7 / 6.7
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 9.4
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCW
Advantage
27-7-0
(79.4%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
W&M
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCW
16-14-2
(53.3%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
W&M
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: -2.3
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
W&M
UNCW
W&M
UNCW
ML
55%
17-14
64%
21-12
61%
19-12
52%
17-16
ATS
63%
19-11-1
58%
19-14
61%
19-12
52%
17-16
TTL
61%
19-12
61%
20-13
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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