Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Foxes @ Saints MRST @ SIE

MARIST

RED FOXESMRST

12-6  |  Road

50
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 7:00 PM ET
MVP Arena
View Odds Details →

SIENA

SAINTSSIE

13-7  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
RED FOXES
100%
📊
SAINTS
0%
RED FOXES --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SIENA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Siena)
Red FoxesMRST (-3.5) 0 SaintsSIE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Foxes Cover

4.5%

Saints Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIE -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIE)

MRST By 1-7 points

3.3%

MRST By 8-14 points

0.6%

SIE By 1-7 points

12.2%

SIE By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
MARIST
87
SIENA
Simulated Score
67
MARIST
71
SIENA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Saints (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 SIE @ MRST 67 - 63
Jan 22, 2026 MRST @ SIE 50 - 69
Feb 14, 2025 MRST @ SIE 65 - 64
Jan 31, 2025 SIE @ MRST 67 - 72
Feb 8, 2024 MRST @ SIE 67 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +25.1% more
Siena: 18.0 vs Marist: 14.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.6%
Siena: 41.0% vs Marist: 29.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +10.0%
Siena: 53.2% vs Marist: 43.2%
Steals (L5) +29.4% more
Marist: 6.2 vs Siena: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRST Score 70.0 50
SIE Score 87.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.0 / 29.5 45.0 / 30.0
Assists 18.0 / 14.4 10.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.6 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 53.2 / 43.2 46.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 71.0 / 82.2 100.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 35.3 38.0 / 24.0
Steals 4.4 / 6.2 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 11.4 8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRST
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
SIE Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRST
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
SIE Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -3.0
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIE
MRST
SIE
MRST
ML
66% 23-12
55% 17-14
48% 16-17
61% 19-12
ATS
66% 23-12
74% 23-8
48% 16-17
61% 19-12
TTL
54% 19-16
52% 16-15
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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