NIAGARA
PURPLE EAGLESNIA
5-13 | Road
61
FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
11-9 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
100%
STAGS
0%
PURPLE EAGLES
--
STAGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
NIA By 1-7 points
8.0%
NIA By 8-14 points
2.2%
FAIR By 1-7 points
20.1%
FAIR By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Niagara
76
NIAGARA
Fairfield
88
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
Niagara
68
NIAGARA
Fairfield
72
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stags
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stags
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stags (-10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Stags (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 22, 2026
NIA @ FAIR
61 - 62
Jan 4, 2026
FAIR @ NIA
83 - 75
Jan 16, 2025
NIA @ FAIR
66 - 70
Feb 16, 2024
NIA @ FAIR
65 - 63
Jan 12, 2024
FAIR @ NIA
72 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+47.0% more
Fairfield: 6.6
vs
Niagara: 4.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.0%
Fairfield: 46.3%
vs
Niagara: 40.3%
Blocks (L5)
+33.5% more
Niagara: 3.9
vs
Fairfield: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+17.6% more
Niagara: 10.7
vs
Fairfield: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NIA Score
76.0
61
FAIR Score
88.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 33.8
29.0 / 33.0
Assists
12.1 / 13.0
14.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.9
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 40.3
41.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
76.0 / 76.4
56.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
31.4 / 31.8
41.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.6 / 4.5
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.8 / 10.7
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
8-22-0
(26.7%)
Margin: -7.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
FAIR
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.7
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
NIA
FAIR
NIA
ML
55%
18-15
55%
16-13
61%
20-13
72%
21-8
ATS
48%
16-17
69%
20-9
61%
20-13
72%
21-8
TTL
48%
16-17
55%
16-13
100%
33-0
100%
29-0
Contextual Game News
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