SOUTHERN MISS
GOLDEN EAGLESUSM
11-9 | Road
62
GEORGIA STATE
PANTHERSGAST
7-12 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
PANTHERS
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Southern Miss)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USM -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)
USM By 1-7 points
27.2%
USM By 8-14 points
23.0%
GAST By 1-7 points
18.6%
GAST By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Miss
89
SOUTHERN MISS
Georgia State
84
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
Southern Miss
68
SOUTHERN MISS
Georgia State
72
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Eagles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Eagles (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 22, 2026
USM @ GAST
62 - 69
Jan 4, 2024
GAST @ USM
73 - 79
Feb 4, 2023
USM @ GAST
79 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+30.1% more
Southern Miss: 14.3
vs
Georgia State: 10.0
Steals (L5)
+22.6% more
Southern Miss: 9.3
vs
Georgia State: 7.2
Blocks (L5)
+16.4% more
Southern Miss: 4.2
vs
Georgia State: 3.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Southern Miss: 43.9%
vs
Georgia State: 42.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USM Score
89.0
62
GAST Score
84.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 23.0
33.0 / 25.0
Assists
14.2 / 9.0
10.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.5 / 4.2
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 43.9
36.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
77.2 / 75.8
72.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
36.7 / 31.7
45.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.2 / 9.3
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 14.3
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
GAST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
GAST
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +3.2
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
USM
GAST
USM
ML
56%
18-14
53%
18-16
71%
22-9
73%
24-9
ATS
59%
19-13
59%
20-14
71%
22-9
74%
25-9
TTL
59%
19-13
68%
23-11
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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