Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Roadrunners @ Rainbow Warriors CSUB @ HAW

CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD

ROADRUNNERSCSUB

8-12  |  Road

71
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 11:59 PM ET
Stan Sheriff Center
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

13-4  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
📊
RAINBOW WARRIORS
0%
ROADRUNNERS --
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
105.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Hawai'i)
RoadrunnersCSUB (-3.5) 0 Rainbow WarriorsHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Roadrunners Cover

18.4%

Rainbow Warriors Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HAW -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

CSUB By 1-7 points

12.2%

CSUB By 8-14 points

4.0%

HAW By 1-7 points

24.3%

HAW By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
48
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
57
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
68
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
72
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rainbow Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rainbow Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rainbow Warriors (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Rainbow Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 105.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 HAW @ CSUB 89 - 74
Jan 22, 2026 CSUB @ HAW 71 - 98
Mar 6, 2025 HAW @ CSUB 64 - 76
Jan 18, 2025 CSUB @ HAW 70 - 81
Mar 9, 2024 CSUB @ HAW 57 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +32.0% more
Hawai'i: 14.1 vs Cal State Bakersfield: 10.7
Steals (L5) +9.8% more
Hawai'i: 7.7 vs Cal State Bakersfield: 7.1
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Hawai'i: 45.9% vs Cal State Bakersfield: 39.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.2%
Hawai'i: 76.2% vs Cal State Bakersfield: 74.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSUB Score 48.0 71
HAW Score 57.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 30.5 27.0 / 27.0
Assists 14.1 / 10.7 11.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.4 / 4.8 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 39.8 49.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 76.2 / 74.0 79.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 37.0 53.0 / 26.0
Steals 7.7 / 7.1 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 12.6 13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUB
8-24-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -9.1 ATS +/-: -3.6
HAW Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUB
11-18-1 (37.9%)
Margin: -9.1 ATS +/-: -3.6
HAW Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.1
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
CSUB
HAW
CSUB
ML
61% 20-13
55% 17-14
68% 21-10
71% 22-9
ATS
67% 22-11
61% 19-12
68% 21-10
71% 22-9
TTL
61% 20-13
58% 18-13
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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