BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
27-17-5 | Road
4
MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
28-15-7 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Sam Montembeault
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 2.00 | 0.941 | -- |
| Sam Montembeault | None-None | 3.07 | 0.813 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00 Ldr
GAA
3.07
0.941 Ldr
Save %
0.813
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
CANADIENS
0%
SABRES
--
CANADIENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MONTREAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Montreal)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MTL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
MTL By 1 goal
19.7%
MTL By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Montreal
3
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Canadiens
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Canadiens
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Canadiens (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Canadiens (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 18, 2026
MTL @ BUF
3 - 2
May 16, 2026
BUF @ MTL
8 - 3
May 14, 2026
MTL @ BUF
6 - 3
May 12, 2026
BUF @ MTL
3 - 2
May 10, 2026
BUF @ MTL
2 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+20.1% more
Montreal: 17.9
vs
Buffalo: 14.9
Power Play % (L5)
+13.9%
Montreal: 25.8%
vs
Buffalo: 11.9%
Hits (L5)
+12.3% more
Montreal: 23.0
vs
Buffalo: 20.4
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.5% more
Montreal: 27.4
vs
Buffalo: 25.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
4
MTL Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.9 / 14.9
16.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
52.8 / 45.4
64.3 / 35.7
Hits
23.0 / 20.4
28.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
2579.0 / 1186.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.4 / 25.2
34.0 / 17.0
Takeaways
4.7 / 4.7
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
BUF
MTL
BUF
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
100%
3-0
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
Canadiens' Ivan Demidov Sidelined 2-4 Weeks with Lower-Body Inju…
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…