Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bengals @ Bobcats IDST @ MTST

IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

10-9  |  Road

62
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 9:00 PM ET
Worthington Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

11-8  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
100%
📊
BOBCATS
0%
BENGALS --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Montana State)
BengalsIDST (-3.5) 0 BobcatsMTST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

34.5%

Bobcats Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)

IDST By 1-7 points

20.1%

IDST By 8-14 points

9.3%

MTST By 1-7 points

27.4%

MTST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
64
IDAHO STATE
68
MONTANA STATE
Simulated Score
70
IDAHO STATE
75
MONTANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bobcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 MTST @ IDST 76 - 91
Jan 22, 2026 IDST @ MTST 62 - 74
Mar 10, 2025 MTST @ IDST 80 - 60
Feb 15, 2025 IDST @ MTST 69 - 74
Jan 16, 2025 MTST @ IDST 67 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +54.8% more
Montana State: 7.5 vs Idaho State: 4.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.4%
Montana State: 42.7% vs Idaho State: 31.3%
Blocks (L5) +22.3% more
Idaho State: 3.6 vs Montana State: 2.8
Assists (L5) +10.4% more
Idaho State: 11.2 vs Montana State: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDST Score 64.0 62
MTST Score 68.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.7 / 31.3 41.0 / 28.0
Assists 10.0 / 11.2 11.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.6 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 45.2 44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 81.2 70.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 31.9 32.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.5 / 4.9 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 9.8 6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTST
IDST
MTST
IDST
ML
52% 16-15
59% 19-13
67% 20-10
72% 23-9
ATS
52% 16-15
50% 16-16
67% 20-10
72% 23-9
TTL
65% 20-11
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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