SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
10-10 | Road
69
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
15-5 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
100%
TOMMIES
0%
JACKRABBITS
--
TOMMIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STMN -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)
SDST By 1-7 points
10.7%
SDST By 8-14 points
3.3%
STMN By 1-7 points
23.0%
STMN By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota State
84
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
St. Thomas-Minnesota
94
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
South Dakota State
73
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
St. Thomas-Minnesota
68
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tommies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jackrabbits
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tommies (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Jackrabbits (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o155.5
Loss
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
SDST @ STMN
67 - 80
Feb 4, 2026
STMN @ SDST
77 - 62
Jan 22, 2026
SDST @ STMN
69 - 74
Feb 6, 2025
STMN @ SDST
86 - 102
Jan 8, 2025
SDST @ STMN
72 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+14.5% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 11.6
vs
South Dakota State: 10.2
Steals (L5)
+13.3% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 7.9
vs
South Dakota State: 6.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 41.6%
vs
South Dakota State: 36.6%
Rebounding (L5)
+12.6% more
South Dakota State: 35.8
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 31.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDST Score
84.0
69
STMN Score
94.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.6 / 36.6
31.0 / 32.0
Assists
15.8 / 16.3
15.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.9 / 3.2
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
52.0 / 51.7
46.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
65.7 / 67.1
75.0 / 46.0
Rebounding
31.3 / 35.8
34.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.9 / 6.9
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 10.2
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
STMN
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
SDST
STMN
SDST
ML
64%
21-12
75%
24-8
64%
21-12
53%
17-15
ATS
70%
23-10
78%
25-7
64%
21-12
53%
17-15
TTL
61%
20-13
53%
17-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
