Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulls @ Blazers USF @ UAB

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

11-7  |  Road

82
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Bartow Arena
View Odds Details →

UAB

BLAZERSUAB

12-7  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
BLAZERS
0%
BULLS --
BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
199.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UAB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (UAB)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 BlazersUAB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

9.7%

Blazers Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UAB -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAB)

USF By 1-7 points

6.8%

USF By 8-14 points

1.7%

UAB By 1-7 points

18.6%

UAB By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
93
SOUTH FLORIDA
106
UAB
Simulated Score
69
SOUTH FLORIDA
76
UAB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blazers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blazers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blazers (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Blazers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o168.5 Loss
Proj Total: 199.0
D
Sim u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 USF @ UAB 82 - 69
Jan 4, 2026 UAB @ USF 109 - 106
Feb 16, 2025 USF @ UAB 78 - 85
Jan 15, 2025 UAB @ USF 92 - 83
Mar 16, 2024 UAB @ USF 93 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
UAB: 44.2% vs South Florida: 41.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.0%
UAB: 76.1% vs South Florida: 74.1%
Blocks (L5) +64.3% more
South Florida: 4.8 vs UAB: 1.7
Turnovers (L5) +28.8% more
South Florida: 10.9 vs UAB: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 93.0 82
UAB Score 106.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 38.1 16.0 / 39.0
Assists 14.5 / 17.0 10.0 / 18.0
Blocks 1.7 / 4.8 8.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 41.7 29.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 74.1 84.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 42.5 46.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.8 / 8.1 12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 7.8 / 10.9 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
UAB
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
UAB
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
UAB
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
USF
UAB
USF
ML
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
41% 13-19
52% 16-15
ATS
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
41% 13-19
52% 16-15
TTL
69% 22-10
52% 17-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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