UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
14-5 | Road
80
UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
11-7 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
100%
AGGIES
0%
TRITONS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (UC Davis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCD -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)
UCSD By 1-7 points
6.8%
UCSD By 8-14 points
1.7%
UCD By 1-7 points
18.6%
UCD By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
UC Davis
85
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
UC San Diego
68
UC SAN DIEGO
UC Davis
72
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
UCD @ UCSD
51 - 68
Jan 22, 2026
UCSD @ UCD
80 - 74
Mar 8, 2025
UCSD @ UCD
68 - 57
Feb 15, 2025
UCD @ UCSD
60 - 85
Mar 7, 2024
UCD @ UCSD
70 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+39.4% more
UC Davis: 13.1
vs
UC San Diego: 9.4
Assists (L5)
+16.2% more
UC Davis: 15.5
vs
UC San Diego: 13.4
Steals (L5)
+11.2% more
UC Davis: 8.3
vs
UC San Diego: 7.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
UC Davis: 36.4%
vs
UC San Diego: 32.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score
72.0
80
UCD Score
85.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 32.3
39.0 / 29.0
Assists
15.5 / 13.4
18.0 / 18.0
Blocks
2.2 / 2.7
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 44.9
36.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
73.5 / 73.9
67.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
36.8 / 36.3
33.0 / 48.0
Steals
8.3 / 7.5
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 9.4
11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
UCD
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
UCSD
UCD
UCSD
ML
58%
19-14
56%
19-15
64%
21-12
65%
22-12
ATS
61%
20-13
50%
17-17
64%
21-12
65%
22-12
TTL
61%
20-13
62%
21-13
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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