WISCONSIN
BADGERSWIS
13-5 | Road
98
PENN STATE
NITTANY LIONSPSU
9-9 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
BADGERS
0%
NITTANY LIONS
100%
BADGERS
--
NITTANY LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Wisconsin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WIS -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)
WIS By 1-7 points
0.8%
WIS By 8-14 points
4.0%
PSU By 1-7 points
0.1%
PSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Wisconsin
85
WISCONSIN
Penn State
54
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
Wisconsin
69
WISCONSIN
Penn State
73
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Badgers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nittany Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Badgers (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Nittany Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.5
Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 22, 2026
WIS @ PSU
98 - 71
Mar 8, 2025
PSU @ WIS
86 - 75
Jan 16, 2024
WIS @ PSU
83 - 87
Feb 8, 2023
WIS @ PSU
79 - 74
Jan 17, 2023
PSU @ WIS
60 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+73.0% more
Wisconsin: 2.6
vs
Penn State: 0.7
Assists (L5)
+25.5% more
Wisconsin: 16.9
vs
Penn State: 12.6
Rebounding (L5)
+19.4% more
Wisconsin: 32.3
vs
Penn State: 26.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
Wisconsin: 37.7%
vs
Penn State: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIS Score
85.0
98
PSU Score
54.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 37.7
30.0 / 43.0
Assists
12.6 / 16.9
11.0 / 25.0
Blocks
0.7 / 2.6
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 46.8
36.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
78.4 / 80.6
74.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
26.0 / 32.3
35.0 / 44.0
Steals
5.5 / 4.4
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 9.0
7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1%
Total +/-: +3.5
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
WIS
PSU
WIS
ML
72%
23-9
60%
21-14
56%
18-14
69%
24-11
ATS
72%
23-9
51%
18-17
56%
18-14
69%
24-11
TTL
66%
21-11
57%
20-15
100%
32-0
100%
35-0
Contextual Game News
College Football Week 5: Northwestern's Rise, Big Ten Coaches Un…
Northwestern Opens Ryan Field with Record-Breaking Debut Against…
Big Ten Road Warriors: Historic Saturday Shakes Up Conference Po…
Gonzaga Offers 2028 Wisconsin Wing Joey Kohnen, Joins Growing Re…
Iowa Men's Basketball Unveils Big Ten Slate: Road Opener at Purd…