Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Aggies MOST @ NMSU

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

10-8  |  Road

84
FINAL
Thu, Jan 22 • 9:00 PM ET
Pan American Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

10-7  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
BEARS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
108.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (New Mexico State)
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

34.5%

Aggies Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NMSU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

MOST By 1-7 points

20.1%

MOST By 8-14 points

9.3%

NMSU By 1-7 points

27.4%

NMSU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
52
MISSOURI STATE
56
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
65
MISSOURI STATE
75
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 108.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 MOST @ NMSU 84 - 75
Jan 4, 2026 NMSU @ MOST 82 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.3% more
New Mexico State: 3.2 vs Missouri State: 2.5
Free Throw % (L5) +9.4%
New Mexico State: 75.5% vs Missouri State: 66.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
New Mexico State: 41.3% vs Missouri State: 36.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
New Mexico State: 47.7% vs Missouri State: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 52.0 84
NMSU Score 56.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.3 / 36.2 26.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.7 / 16.1 10.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.5 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 43.8 44.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 66.1 75.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 34.0 28.0 / 40.0
Steals 4.8 / 8.0 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 7.9 / 12.2 5.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
MOST
NMSU
MOST
ML
61% 19-12
65% 22-12
67% 20-10
62% 21-13
ATS
65% 20-11
68% 23-11
67% 20-10
62% 21-13
TTL
45% 14-17
44% 15-19
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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