Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Kings TOR @ SAC

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

26-19  |  Road

122
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

12-32  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
RAPTORS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Sacramento)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

6.7%

Kings Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

TOR By 1-7 points

4.8%

TOR By 8-14 points

1.1%

SAC By 1-7 points

15.3%

SAC By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
105
TORONTO
120
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
112
TORONTO
118
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u227.5 Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 SAC @ TOR 123 - 115
Jan 21, 2026 TOR @ SAC 122 - 109
Oct 8, 2025 TOR @ SAC 130 - 122
Nov 6, 2024 TOR @ SAC 107 - 122
Nov 2, 2024 SAC @ TOR 128 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.9% more
Sacramento: 16.0 vs Toronto: 13.8
Rebounding (L5) +9.2% more
Sacramento: 44.0 vs Toronto: 40.3
Blocks (L5) +8.8% more
Sacramento: 4.6 vs Toronto: 4.2
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Sacramento: 51.1% vs Toronto: 49.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 105.0 122
SAC Score 120.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 38.5 27.0 / 39.0
Assists 27.6 / 33.9 25.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.6 / 4.2 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.1 / 49.4 47.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 79.8 / 83.4 82.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 44.0 / 40.3 45.0 / 47.0
Steals 6.2 / 6.6 6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 13.8 16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
TOR
SAC
TOR
ML
55% 55-45
55% 57-47
61% 50-32
55% 48-39
ATS
54% 52-45-3
61% 62-40-2
61% 50-32
55% 48-39
TTL
58% 57-42-1
60% 62-42
100% 82-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 1 hour, 25 minutes ago
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 1 hour, 33 minutes ago
Chicago Bulls Edge Phoenix Suns 124-117 in Preseason Opener
headtopics 19 hours, 43 minutes ago
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
cbssports 1 day, 1 hour ago
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
actionnews5 1 day, 1 hour ago