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NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

14-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Jan 25 • 3:00 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

14-3  |  Home

7
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
0%
📊
BRONCOS
100%
PATRIOTS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (New England)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

66.6%

Broncos Cover

33.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NE -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

NE By 1-6 points

16.7%

NE By 7-13 points

19.0%

DEN By 1-6 points

13.5%

DEN By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
26
NEW ENGLAND
20
DENVER
Simulated Score
20
NEW ENGLAND
24
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Patriots (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
D
Sim u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 25, 2026 NE @ DEN 10 - 7
Dec 24, 2023 NE @ DEN 26 - 23
Oct 18, 2020 DEN @ NE 18 - 12
Nov 12, 2017 NE @ DEN 41 - 16
Dec 18, 2016 NE @ DEN 16 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.0% more
New England: 6.1 vs Denver: 5.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +12.1% more
New England: 267.8 vs Denver: 235.5
Total Yards (L5) +9.0% more
New England: 382.5 vs Denver: 348.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 26.0 10
DEN Score 20.0 7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
NE
DEN
NE
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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