ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
20-25 | Road
124
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
18-23 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
HAWKS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
23.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
27.2%
MEM By 1-7 points
10.7%
MEM By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
125
ATLANTA
Memphis
115
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Atlanta
110
ATLANTA
Memphis
115
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-1)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o239.5
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Sim
u239.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
MEM @ ATL
107 - 146
Jan 21, 2026
ATL @ MEM
124 - 122
Oct 11, 2025
ATL @ MEM
122 - 116
Mar 3, 2025
ATL @ MEM
132 - 130
Dec 21, 2024
MEM @ ATL
128 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+20.0% more
Atlanta: 10.0
vs
Memphis: 8.0
Blocks (L5)
+32.4% more
Memphis: 6.0
vs
Atlanta: 4.5
Turnovers (L5)
+25.4% more
Memphis: 14.9
vs
Atlanta: 11.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Memphis: 37.4%
vs
Atlanta: 32.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
125.0
124
MEM Score
115.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.4 / 32.0
34.0 / 44.0
Assists
29.1 / 30.1
26.0 / 34.0
Blocks
6.0 / 4.5
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 42.0
46.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
78.6 / 78.8
89.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
45.0 / 45.3
43.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.0 / 10.0
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 11.9
18.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
ATL
MEM
ATL
ML
57%
59-44
50%
52-52
50%
41-41
55%
48-40
ATS
63%
65-38
53%
55-48-1
50%
41-41
55%
48-40
TTL
70%
71-31-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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