Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Celtics IND @ BOS

INDIANA

PACERSIND

10-34  |  Road

104
FINAL
Wed, Jan 21 • 7:30 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

26-16  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
PACERS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Boston)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

1.4%

Celtics Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

IND By 1-7 points

1.1%

IND By 8-14 points

0.1%

BOS By 1-7 points

5.8%

BOS By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
96
INDIANA
118
BOSTON
Simulated Score
121
INDIANA
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (-10) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Pacers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 214.0
D
Sim u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 IND @ BOS 104 - 119
Jan 12, 2026 BOS @ IND 96 - 98
Dec 26, 2025 BOS @ IND 140 - 122
Dec 22, 2025 IND @ BOS 95 - 103
Dec 29, 2024 IND @ BOS 123 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +11.9%
Boston: 82.3% vs Indiana: 70.4%
Rebounding (L5) +11.1% more
Boston: 48.8 vs Indiana: 43.9
Turnovers (L5) +26.9% more
Indiana: 18.6 vs Boston: 13.6
Assists (L5) +22.0% more
Indiana: 26.1 vs Boston: 20.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 96.0 104
BOS Score 118.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 34.3 39.0 / 27.0
Assists 20.4 / 26.1 24.0 / 31.0
Blocks 5.0 / 5.9 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 44.4 48.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 82.3 / 70.4 92.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 48.8 / 43.9 54.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.4 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 18.6 16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
IND
BOS
IND
ML
57% 61-46
48% 47-50
53% 47-41
54% 45-38
ATS
59% 61-43-3
59% 57-40
53% 47-41
54% 45-38
TTL
56% 60-47
54% 52-45
100% 88-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 7 hours, 23 minutes ago
Haliburton Returns to Hilton Coliseum as Pacers Defeat Timberwol…
kcci 19 hours, 38 minutes ago
JJ Redick Sets Record Straight on Lakers 'Pieces Fit' Comment Af…
bleacherreport 1 day, 7 hours ago
Cavs 2026-27 Viewing Guide: DAZN, National TV, and Free Over-the…
yahoo 1 day, 13 hours ago
Providence Basketball Awaits NCAA Eligibility Verdicts for Dink …
yahoo 1 day, 13 hours ago