MISSISSIPPI STATE
BULLDOGSMSST
10-8 | Road
68
TEXAS A&M
AGGIESTA&M
14-4 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
AGGIES
0%
BULLDOGS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
184.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-52.0
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +52.0 points (Texas A&M)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TA&M -52.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)
MSST By 1-7 points
0.0%
MSST By 8-14 points
0.0%
TA&M By 1-7 points
0.0%
TA&M By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Mississippi State
66
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Texas A&M
118
TEXAS A&M
Simulated Score
Mississippi State
68
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Texas A&M
75
TEXAS A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -52.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o164.0
Loss
Proj Total: 184.0
D
Sim
u164.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
MSST @ TA&M
68 - 88
Feb 18, 2025
TA&M @ MSST
54 - 70
Mar 6, 2024
MSST @ TA&M
69 - 75
Feb 25, 2023
TA&M @ MSST
62 - 69
Mar 5, 2022
MSST @ TA&M
64 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+69.5% more
Texas A&M: 8.6
vs
Mississippi State: 5.1
Assists (L5)
+31.0% more
Texas A&M: 15.4
vs
Mississippi State: 11.8
Turnovers (L5)
+15.5% more
Texas A&M: 10.2
vs
Mississippi State: 8.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.4%
Texas A&M: 36.0%
vs
Mississippi State: 23.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MSST Score
66.0
68
TA&M Score
118.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 23.6
35.0 / 26.0
Assists
15.4 / 11.8
18.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.8 / 5.1
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 41.1
41.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
68.2 / 68.0
96.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 42.1
37.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.6 / 5.1
6.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 8.8
3.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -4.2
ATS +/-: -4.4
TA&M
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.2
ATS +/-: -4.4
TA&M
Advantage
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.1
TA&M
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
MSST
TA&M
MSST
ML
67%
20-10
66%
21-11
54%
15-13
55%
17-14
ATS
67%
20-10
56%
18-14
54%
15-13
55%
17-14
TTL
70%
21-9
59%
19-13
100%
28-0
100%
31-0
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